To train our regression model, we used a dataset with every NFL game since 1979, with features including betting lines, game outcomes, weather conditions, and more. We needed to engineer a lot of new features to augment the data we started with. First, since our data did not include the results of. Step 1 - Define the target/aim of the model What are we trying to achieve? The aim is to create a projection for an NBA game. When we have the projection (probabilities) we can compare it to odds bookmakers are offering. Step 2 - Collect data In theory data could be any numbers that have some link (correlation/explanatory power) to the target. The NFL is one of the hardest sports to bet successfully because the lines are so accurate. The more popular a sport, the money in a betting pool, which results in sharper lines. There are ways to win money betting the NFL, including exploiting player props that don’t have as accurate of lines. NumberFire's model currently projects the Chiefs to both win and cover the 3.0-point spread. We give them 67.8% and 54.5% chances of winning and covering, respectively.

• Nfl Betting How To
• Build Nfl Betting Model
• Sports Betting Model Reddit

The SportsGrid engineering and data science teams have a very particular set of skills. A set of skills that make the guy most likely to be asked: “Can you model this?”. The answer is invariably yes. We’ve released our NFL Betting Model and will be updating each week with our predictions for that week’s NFL games. The betting model picks can be viewed against consensus picks or against individual sportsbooks.

2018 NFL Betting Model Results

We are here to talk about how to build a betting model and in particular our betting model for the NFL. We ran this same model last year over on our DFS site DailyRoto and had a good degree of success. We also entered and tracked our results at Betting Pros for the entire season where the model finished 6th place out of more than 140 different competitors.

56% Overall

53% Against the Spread

58% On Totals

Betting Pros 2018 Accuracy Competition Results

We also submitted confidence ratings each week based on the same information presented on our NFL Model Picks. The results were interesting in that generally our highest valued picks performed the best (winning 64% overall) but that didn’t always carry down through on individual bet types or lower star recommendations.

Betting Pros Confidence Rating Results

Overall, the 2018 NFL Betting Model picks performed at a high level.

Building the 2019 SportsGrid NFL Betting Model

There’s a well-established process to modeling out NFL games and our approach. To start by paraphrasing Richard Feynman, the key to science is you make a guess at a truth or law, you calculate the consequences of that guess and then you test it against nature. If it disagrees with experiment your guess is wrong. This is the crux of the matter. Your model is worthless if it isn’t reflective of reality.

Step 1 then is measuring reality or the reality of that particular sport. That means data. Specifically, results and events. How are the games scored? How do those scores move over time? What critical values can I capture from the data? Thankfully we are quite good at getting this data.

For example, Win totals distributions for season Win Totals bets:

Which we can use to determine the value of a half win on your win total line from Vegas.

Or Game totals for the last five seasons:

Or home team margins:

What this data lets us do is to characterize normal for the sport.

What are the usual outcomes and their frequencies? What is true for the NFL? The next step is to use the data to build the model right? Nope.

Step 2 is to go out and do research. Like all good engineers, we were taught very early to never re-invent the wheel. We are not the first or the last person to try to build a predictive model for NFL games. There’s a significant amount of research out there into this problem. Reading it put us on the path to the things that matter. The four largest inputs into our NFL Betting Model include:

What’s the relative team strength? This is a major driving factor. To come up with our relative team strength we have our own proprietary blend which includes advanced team statistics and performance, “wisdom of the crowds” knowledge which considers some of the top statistical-based ELO models and betting odds including pinnacle lines. All of these factors have been back-tested to come up with our own ELO model and team strength ratings which are adjusted weekly during the NFL season.

Where is the game being played? Our model takes into account where the game is being played, whether it is at home, on the road or in a neutral venue. We also consider the specific venue and home-field advantage for that team.

What’s the surface? Is the game being played outdoors, indoors, on grass or on turf?

Is it very windy or very cold? Different weather conditions can impact not just the totals, but the expected winning percentages and spread for each NFL game. We weight the temperature and wind conditions in our model.

The model weights these over different periods of time in a variety of different ways but ultimately these are things that we know for each game or can derive and a lot of analysis suggests matters.

Nfl Betting How To

Step 3 is the nitty-gritty. Building the actual model and testing it against actual lines. Then doing it again. Then again and like a dozen or more times until you’re sure that it’s effective. One important fact for any model is that your work is never done. The underlying factors move. The games evolve over time.

Step 4 then is to continue to revisit it every offseason to adjust your priors as needed.

For the NFL we ended up with three NFL betting models, a spread betting model, a win total betting model and an over/under betting model. Let’s talk about all three.

NFL Spreads are the most popular bet type for the NFL and the sharpest market. The NFL is a low number of possessions game and that means that games suffer a very wide range of possible outcomes. Throw in the fact that humans are decent at linear outcomes (i.e. straight lines) and the margins are very small.

Over/Unders are next. Here your edge is more significant. Game Situation is very important to this. There are massive swings to play calling and scoring depending on location. It’s very much an exercise in data collation.

Finally, we have the moneyline were you need to pick a winner. This is much trickier because you get uneven payouts. Your price varies and what you really care about is if that price is right. We ran a Kelly betting recommendation system here. It basically looks at the price of a side versus the odds and makes a buy recommendation. That ran at a 26% profit last year.

So we have a model that ran well versus historical and ran well against actual games and lines. Good right? Not quite. I did mention that the offseason is for review and improvement.

Step 5 is always continuous improvement. I am looking at making any necessary adjustments both to the underlying model be it for additional data or for any changes to the NFL game. I’m also looking at optimal betting strategies for all the models

Because I know that like me you are looking for an edge and I can tell you that we have a very particular set of skills.

Sep 29, 2019; Orchard Park, NY, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) is sacked by New England Patriots middle linebacker Kyle Van Noy (53) during the second quarter at New Era Field.

The Packers are back in first place in the NFC North standings and now host the Vikings on Sunday with a chance to move to 6-1. Aaron Rodgers and company are six-point favorites in the latest Week 8 NFL odds from William Hill. Green Bay is the only team in the league with a perfect record against the spread at home (2-0) and the offense is back on track following its abysmal performance against Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Can the Packers cover one of the larger NFL spreads of the week?

Meanwhile, the Week 8 NFL betting lines also list the Chiefs as 19.5-point favorites at home against the Jets. That game originally opened with the Chiefs favored by 21.5 in the Week 8 NFL Vegas lines, making it just the third game to open with a spread of 20 or more in the last decade. All of the Week 8 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 8 NFL picks now.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,800 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago.

It's off to a strong 15-7 roll on top-rated NFL picks this season. The model enters Week 8 on an incredible 111-72 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. The model also ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch in three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has examined the latest Week 8 NFL odds and NFL betting lines from William Hill, simulated every snap, and its predictions are in. Head to SportsLine now to see them all.

Top NFL predictions for Week 8

One of the top Week 8 NFL predictions the model recommends: Baltimore covers comfortably as a four-point home favorite in a critical AFC North matchup against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is the only undefeated team remaining in the NFL at 6-0 and is also 5-1 against the spread.

Despite having nothing to play for with home-field advantage locked up and Lamar Jackson on the bench, the Ravens recorded a dominant 28-10 win as one-point underdogs the last time these two teams met last December. This game should look different with Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger back in their respective lineups, but even Pittsburgh's excellent rushing defense that ranked third in yards per carry was gashed for 361 total rushing yards in two losses to Baltimore last year.

After 10,000 simulations, the model says Baltimore covers well over 50 percent of the time. The under (44) also hits well over 50 percent of the time.

Another one of the top Week 8 NFL predictions from the model: The Packers (-6) cover as home favorites against the Vikings. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have feasted against struggling defenses this year. The Packers have won and covered all four games against teams that give up more than 25 points per game. Minnesota certainly fits that bill, ranking 30th in the league in scoring defense at 32 points per contest.

The Vikings are a shell of themselves in the front seven with linebacker Anthony Barr (pectoral muscle) and defensive end Danielle Hunter (neck) on injured reserve. Minnesota also shipped defensive end Yannick Ngakoue to Baltimore last week. SportsLine's model predicts that Green Bay will score more than 30 points as the Packers cover in well over 50 percent of the simulations. The Packers also hold the Vikings under their season-long scoring average (25.8 points) as the over (50) hits well over 50 percent of the time.

How to make Week 8 NFL picks

The model also has made the call on every other game on the Week 8 NFL schedule. It's also identified a Super Bowl contender that goes down hard. You can only get every pick for every game here.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 8? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds from William Hill below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,800 on its top-rated NFL picks.

NFL odds, matchups for Week 8

Indianapolis Colts at Detroit Lions (+3, 49.5)

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6, 50)

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4.5, 40.5)

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Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (+7, 51)

Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 49)

New York Jets at Kansas City Chefs (-19.5, 49)

Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins (+3.5, 45.5)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 44)

Sports Betting Model Reddit

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3, 44.5)

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (+4, 42.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 53.5)

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-11, 42.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (+12.5, 45)